http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34704789/ns ... al_estate/
anyone care to take a stab at where this one goes off the rails in the doom and gloom department?
here's a dumbass article on the economy....
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callmeslick
- Posts: 16473
- Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2009 9:02 pm
- Location: Fearing and loathing in Delaware and Virginia.
Re: here's a dumbass article on the economy....
I don't know what to say about that article, I can only give my two cents about what's going on with the banks and the Federal Government (FHA in particular) as a result of my work. I finished an FHA job in early November, but as is usual with the Federal Government you have people running the program who have no fecking clue how to do it. First off, I bid the job last March. It took nearly 6 months for a couple who more than qualified for the loan. They needed a licensed contractor to turn in all the paperwork, etc and I was contractor on deck. So I put together a second bid with all the other things they were putting in the loan, such as refrigerator, range, microwave, washing machine, dryer, etc. FHA comes back a month later and "forgot" to tell the homeowner that they needed a general contractor. This is after the homeowner found all his subs to do all his work. So in comes a general contractor who did almost no work and is being paid top dollar to file forms and cut checks. FHA comes back a bit later and says my bids are fine they fall within FHA's guidelines. I was doing the painting and refinishing the cabinets. I fully expected not to get rich off of the painting and I found it quite comical that FHA came back to tell the homeowner that they only paid $1.10/foot for painting. Now my bid was right in that area, as I wanted the job. Thing is, that's going rate for painting, all one color. I did several different colors and upgraded the paint. Had I charged going rate of $1.45/foot there would most likely been a fight on my hands. Every contractor in town bids at those prices.
I start the job and my guys paint 3500 sq. ft of home (12 foot ceilings, 19 in the entry) two coats including all closets. In a week. I had started on the cabinets the week before my painters came in and finished the cabinets in 2 1/2 weeks. I turn in a bill for the first draw for the full cost of the cabinets but only 2/3rd of the paint cuz the government spud who inspects this shit couldn't foresee that the rest would be done in a couple more days. I get paid but I get to sit on the check for 10 days cuz the government's checks aren't good till then. Oh yeah, did I mention that $800 worth of materials was my money, the government doesn't do deposits to start work. Also, when the homeowner is making his draws FHA is charging him extra on top of the interest to make a draw. The same thing loan sharks do. Anyhow, I do some extra work, the homeowner adds painting the garage and they added a door into the master bedroom which meant demo'ing the arch that was there. I turned in a bill for that and got paid as well. This was end of November. I was finished first week of November. I'm still waiting for the 10% the government held back on the total for the job, which is a bunch of horseshit because the inspector has been in several times since then to check on the flooring and other trades that came after me. I've been doing this for over 25 years and only in government work (I've done several large HUD apartment complexes) and for the union. Fact of the matter is that I've never dealt with a government inspector that had a clue albeit one guy working for OSHA and that was in the early 90's.
Now the banks: I have a buddy who has been approved for his loan for his home for several months. He has to be out of the home he's renting in 5 days. He still may not be moved into the new home because the banks are so fucked up right now that they're processing paperwork at a snails pace. Same thing for another job I just finished. Same thing for another guy in the same neighborhood as the first guy (both are stationed at Luke AFB). All of a sudden the banks are being cautious and "responsible" and they're having an adverse effect on the housing industry. Hell, an employee of mine was told that he needed to turn in paperwork from his employer verifying his work status and that they'd refinance his truck. I filed the paperwork and they shot him down. Another employee was told he can re-fi his home, just need proof of job status. I'll be doing that paperwork sometime this week. I'll let you know how that turns out.
I start the job and my guys paint 3500 sq. ft of home (12 foot ceilings, 19 in the entry) two coats including all closets. In a week. I had started on the cabinets the week before my painters came in and finished the cabinets in 2 1/2 weeks. I turn in a bill for the first draw for the full cost of the cabinets but only 2/3rd of the paint cuz the government spud who inspects this shit couldn't foresee that the rest would be done in a couple more days. I get paid but I get to sit on the check for 10 days cuz the government's checks aren't good till then. Oh yeah, did I mention that $800 worth of materials was my money, the government doesn't do deposits to start work. Also, when the homeowner is making his draws FHA is charging him extra on top of the interest to make a draw. The same thing loan sharks do. Anyhow, I do some extra work, the homeowner adds painting the garage and they added a door into the master bedroom which meant demo'ing the arch that was there. I turned in a bill for that and got paid as well. This was end of November. I was finished first week of November. I'm still waiting for the 10% the government held back on the total for the job, which is a bunch of horseshit because the inspector has been in several times since then to check on the flooring and other trades that came after me. I've been doing this for over 25 years and only in government work (I've done several large HUD apartment complexes) and for the union. Fact of the matter is that I've never dealt with a government inspector that had a clue albeit one guy working for OSHA and that was in the early 90's.
Now the banks: I have a buddy who has been approved for his loan for his home for several months. He has to be out of the home he's renting in 5 days. He still may not be moved into the new home because the banks are so fucked up right now that they're processing paperwork at a snails pace. Same thing for another job I just finished. Same thing for another guy in the same neighborhood as the first guy (both are stationed at Luke AFB). All of a sudden the banks are being cautious and "responsible" and they're having an adverse effect on the housing industry. Hell, an employee of mine was told that he needed to turn in paperwork from his employer verifying his work status and that they'd refinance his truck. I filed the paperwork and they shot him down. Another employee was told he can re-fi his home, just need proof of job status. I'll be doing that paperwork sometime this week. I'll let you know how that turns out.
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callmeslick
- Posts: 16473
- Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2009 9:02 pm
- Location: Fearing and loathing in Delaware and Virginia.
Re: here's a dumbass article on the economy....
ok, so Ruggie missed it(or used the post to go on about a rant that's been bugging him). Next?
C'mon, guys, I know several of you can see this, if you read the article. Hint: here's a prime example of why to NEVER base your investment strategies on newspaper articles or economic analysts public statements.
C'mon, guys, I know several of you can see this, if you read the article. Hint: here's a prime example of why to NEVER base your investment strategies on newspaper articles or economic analysts public statements.
Re: here's a dumbass article on the economy....
I felt like ranting.
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callmeslick
- Posts: 16473
- Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2009 9:02 pm
- Location: Fearing and loathing in Delaware and Virginia.
Re: here's a dumbass article on the economy....
much better sig line. Thank-you! 
c'mon Ruggie....you work in Housing construction. You should be able to figure out my beef, although your
locale might prevent you from seeing the obvious problem in the article.
c'mon Ruggie....you work in Housing construction. You should be able to figure out my beef, although your
locale might prevent you from seeing the obvious problem in the article.
Re: here's a dumbass article on the economy....
Let me guess... they're talking about the Chinese economy hehe
Re: here's a dumbass article on the economy....
Who's the n00b?
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Pudfark
Re: here's a dumbass article on the economy....
Obviously....now ain't the time to be buying a home.....I agree.
Who really wants to spend that kind of money, when they don't really know the value of what they are buying? I don't. Who is to say, be trusted and held accountable for establishing a "true value"??? What the hell is a "true value" these days?
I'll let you boys in on a little "liberal secret"...."It don't really matter whut ya pay fer it...cuz, the forth coming hyper inflation will rapidly amortize any difference in the "true value"..... Makes sense don't it........"whut?" "Wanna buy a house?"
Old Pudfark sez: "All of this brought to you..courtesy of.....The Fed"
Who really wants to spend that kind of money, when they don't really know the value of what they are buying? I don't. Who is to say, be trusted and held accountable for establishing a "true value"??? What the hell is a "true value" these days?
I'll let you boys in on a little "liberal secret"...."It don't really matter whut ya pay fer it...cuz, the forth coming hyper inflation will rapidly amortize any difference in the "true value"..... Makes sense don't it........"whut?" "Wanna buy a house?"
Old Pudfark sez: "All of this brought to you..courtesy of.....The Fed"
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Pudfark
Re: here's a dumbass article on the economy....
Old Pudfark sez: "It's just plain un-american...not to be a "buddy-fecker"....
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callmeslick
- Posts: 16473
- Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2009 9:02 pm
- Location: Fearing and loathing in Delaware and Virginia.
Re: here's a dumbass article on the economy....
another miss. Geez, think about it folks! Go back and find, if you wish, a chart of home sales in the US broken down by month, going back as far as you care to. Home sales drop EVERY FUCKING YEAR in November. The holidays, the cold weather, the kids are in school. It's just a bad time to buy a home or move if you don't really have to. Now, check the table in the article and compare this November with LAST November. Sales are up 26%. Yet, the article tries to imply that this all may mean a double-dip recession, or some other dire news. The analyst, who clearly was a rocket scientist before landing this job, goes on to state: "I don't expect sales to really pick up until late Spring". No shit? You mean, kind of like they do every year?? Ole Slick will go one further and predict a peak near August 1, and another sharp dropoff next November.
The problem is, a decent number of ignorant investors will read this(it was in every newspaper I could find, and on the radio news yesterday) and react by selling stocks and repositioning portfolios, while the few sharp tools in the bag spent today picking up investments in construction related securities. Once again, the Rubes get fleeced, and Barnum is proven correct in his assessment of humankind.......
The problem is, a decent number of ignorant investors will read this(it was in every newspaper I could find, and on the radio news yesterday) and react by selling stocks and repositioning portfolios, while the few sharp tools in the bag spent today picking up investments in construction related securities. Once again, the Rubes get fleeced, and Barnum is proven correct in his assessment of humankind.......