come on, Darkhorse, bring what you have....
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:35 pm
Feel free, in this thread, to explain how the coming automation revolution is some sort of Liberal Dream. I'll put forth the sequence of why I am concerned and how I got concerned, and will respectfully listen to any challenges to my facts or views, as well as new data YOU wish to put forward. Here goes my end of the bargain:
1. I've always been aware, since the LAST revolution in industry(could be called the microelectronic revolution) that the time where automation and robotics took over most production and ALL repetitive motion tasks was coming. I saw the beginnings in the Medical Lab field towards the end of my career. I pondered it as I managed my portfolio, but without any urgency as I felt at the time(circa 2006 or so) that we were likely a good generation(30 years) from major impact.
2. The fact that it has begun quicker and progressed faster set in when I was in one of these online debates over whether Obama was good for American industry. I knew the other person was wrong about losing production, so I looked it up. There was a huge, steady increase in US industrial output month to month since around Q1 of 2010. However, the same research showed me that jobs went up at around 1/8 the amount as output. Why, I wondered? Turns out that NEW industrial development in the US has been highly automated. Uh-Oh, things may be moving quicker than I thought.
3. The election. When one really starts to chew the bones of exit and post-election polling, it is clear that Trump pulled a lot of scared working class voters in. Why? Because, in interviews, they felt he was the only one promising to bring their job(s) back. Why didn't Hillary make the same promise? Don't know, given that she sure didn't present the reality at all, and when she hinted at it(WV, coal mining), she paid a price for it. Bottom line is that the swing votes in the 2016 elections came from scared people. Largely, scared WHITE people, as folks of color are USED to being screwed by the economic system, and respond with less alarm.
4.post election, I threw the idea out to my FB folks, a diverse group both politically and professionally. The true geeks in the crowd include a professor in biomechanics at Rochester Institute of Technology, several top level software writers and another PhD who has worked for Intel for two decades, at least. The latter is involved in chip architecture and other stuff WAY out of my pay grade, but I listen real hard to what he says. He, and the rest, have taken great pains in a couple threads that run hundreds of posts long, to point out that massive automation of industry, transportation, service industries, delivery, warehousing and even shopping processes were no more than 6 years from full force. There was a debate between the experts as to 4-8 years, but no one generation away. Thus, we are, all agreed who had any real knowledge, within close sight of the losses of close to 80% of all currently existing jobs, with no more than 10% of those jobs being replaced by new ones(and that number is deemed very optimistic).
5. conclusion--at a time when folks are just starting to see their jobs disappear, the knee jerk reaction gave us an administsration seemingly averse to any social safety net. In 5 years, a very robust social support network has to be in place, or vast numbers of your fellow citizens will be facing life with NO INCOME WHATSOEVER, nor any real prospect except diving in for the scraps of the support economy, which, flooded with available labor ,will go for rock bottom wages. At the top of the heap will be the MAYBE 5% of all citizens perfectly capable of living off investments, OR possessing unique skills that are in high demand. They will all get VERY rich, very quickly. If that income is not, somehow, spread throughout the society, the society will collapse, generally in a violent fashion,looking at history. I don't wish to see that. And, despite what you may think, I hold a sliver of hope that the Trump team will be able to sell the reality to the American working class, and address it equitably. Initial vibes don't help me maintain that hope, but still I have it. Remember, it took LBJ and Robert Byrd to give us the Civil Rights Act, so sometimes the odd messenger works better than the expected ones.
Now, if any of this is 'liberal claptrap', point it out, and tell us why. If you see a different reality, tell us why and how. Balls in your court now, DH.
I offered the same to Pud, be he seems stuck on gibberish mode, rather than intelligent response. You seem to be determined to pooh-pooh others as not doing anything but complaining or mocking, so here's your chance. Flesh it out. Give us some ideas, some insight.
1. I've always been aware, since the LAST revolution in industry(could be called the microelectronic revolution) that the time where automation and robotics took over most production and ALL repetitive motion tasks was coming. I saw the beginnings in the Medical Lab field towards the end of my career. I pondered it as I managed my portfolio, but without any urgency as I felt at the time(circa 2006 or so) that we were likely a good generation(30 years) from major impact.
2. The fact that it has begun quicker and progressed faster set in when I was in one of these online debates over whether Obama was good for American industry. I knew the other person was wrong about losing production, so I looked it up. There was a huge, steady increase in US industrial output month to month since around Q1 of 2010. However, the same research showed me that jobs went up at around 1/8 the amount as output. Why, I wondered? Turns out that NEW industrial development in the US has been highly automated. Uh-Oh, things may be moving quicker than I thought.
3. The election. When one really starts to chew the bones of exit and post-election polling, it is clear that Trump pulled a lot of scared working class voters in. Why? Because, in interviews, they felt he was the only one promising to bring their job(s) back. Why didn't Hillary make the same promise? Don't know, given that she sure didn't present the reality at all, and when she hinted at it(WV, coal mining), she paid a price for it. Bottom line is that the swing votes in the 2016 elections came from scared people. Largely, scared WHITE people, as folks of color are USED to being screwed by the economic system, and respond with less alarm.
4.post election, I threw the idea out to my FB folks, a diverse group both politically and professionally. The true geeks in the crowd include a professor in biomechanics at Rochester Institute of Technology, several top level software writers and another PhD who has worked for Intel for two decades, at least. The latter is involved in chip architecture and other stuff WAY out of my pay grade, but I listen real hard to what he says. He, and the rest, have taken great pains in a couple threads that run hundreds of posts long, to point out that massive automation of industry, transportation, service industries, delivery, warehousing and even shopping processes were no more than 6 years from full force. There was a debate between the experts as to 4-8 years, but no one generation away. Thus, we are, all agreed who had any real knowledge, within close sight of the losses of close to 80% of all currently existing jobs, with no more than 10% of those jobs being replaced by new ones(and that number is deemed very optimistic).
5. conclusion--at a time when folks are just starting to see their jobs disappear, the knee jerk reaction gave us an administsration seemingly averse to any social safety net. In 5 years, a very robust social support network has to be in place, or vast numbers of your fellow citizens will be facing life with NO INCOME WHATSOEVER, nor any real prospect except diving in for the scraps of the support economy, which, flooded with available labor ,will go for rock bottom wages. At the top of the heap will be the MAYBE 5% of all citizens perfectly capable of living off investments, OR possessing unique skills that are in high demand. They will all get VERY rich, very quickly. If that income is not, somehow, spread throughout the society, the society will collapse, generally in a violent fashion,looking at history. I don't wish to see that. And, despite what you may think, I hold a sliver of hope that the Trump team will be able to sell the reality to the American working class, and address it equitably. Initial vibes don't help me maintain that hope, but still I have it. Remember, it took LBJ and Robert Byrd to give us the Civil Rights Act, so sometimes the odd messenger works better than the expected ones.
Now, if any of this is 'liberal claptrap', point it out, and tell us why. If you see a different reality, tell us why and how. Balls in your court now, DH.
I offered the same to Pud, be he seems stuck on gibberish mode, rather than intelligent response. You seem to be determined to pooh-pooh others as not doing anything but complaining or mocking, so here's your chance. Flesh it out. Give us some ideas, some insight.
